Oscar nominations 2023: Accurate reflections

Edwin Arnaudin: Well, I guess I should finish watching All Quiet on the Western Front. The latest adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque's novel — one of my most depressing high school required readings — racked up nine Academy Award nominations, including Picture, Adapted Screenplay, International Feature, and in a slew of technical categories.

All that despite Netflix not raising a finger to promote it to critics this awards season, yet the film gained traction among the various guilds and at the BAFTAs, whose membership overlaps significantly with the Academy. The first 20 or so minute are...fine, so maybe it gets better?

James Rosario: I have yet to see it, which, in retrospect is rather surprising to me because I generally enjoy gritty war films. I have seen the 1930 version, if that counts for anything. Needless to say, All Quiet has suddenly jumped straight to the top of my watchlist.

Out of the 10 Best Picture nominees, there are two underdogs I'm rooting for (Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking), four I'm not at all surprised to see (The Banshees of Inisherin; Everything Everywhere All At Once; The Fabelmans; and Tár), one I haven't seen (the aforementioned All Quiet on the Western Front), and three I'm actively rooting against (Avatar: The Way of Water; Elvis; and Top Gun: Maverick).

If I had to make a prediction right now who will win, I'd put my money on The Fabelmans, but it's an eclectic year that may be full of surprises.

Edwin: I'm with you on rooting against The Way of Water (an actively bad film) and Maverick and Elvis (two extremely flawed films with a few memorable set pieces keeping them afloat). But they're the three big moneymakers of 2022, so here they are.

I'm likewise happy to see Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking up for Best Picture and a few other high-profile awards. Both absolutely nail their assignments and tackle complex subject matter with creativity and intelligence.

As for guessing winners, I'd currently go with a split at the top with Steven Spielberg earning a much-deserved third Best Director statuette, this time for telling his own story with immense poignancy and humor, and Everything Everywhere All at Once taking home Best Picture.

However, we're only a year removed from The Power of the Dog solely winning Best Director after receiving 12 nominations. 11-time nominee EEAAO feels like much more of an audience favorite and seems poised to claim Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor for Ke Huy Quan's brilliant performance. But is it too weird to prevail in other categories, including the top prize?

James: It might indeed be too weird for the top prize — which of course makes me want it to win even more. As someone who saw The Goonies on opening night in 1985, and thinks Short Round is the greatest sidekick in all of movie history, you'd better believe I'm all in on Quan winning Supporting Actor. He's up against some heavyweights, but I think he's got a real shot at it. It's like watching my childhood be validated before my eyes. It's a bit surreal.

The Supporting Actress category is no joke either, but as a perrenial rooter for underdogs, I'm very excited to see Hong Chau get the nod for The Whale. She may be outshined by Brendan Fraser's career-defining performance, but Chau certainly helps him navigate the peaks and valleys of a very surprising film. I'll bet Darren Aronofsky is royally pissed right now over his diss for Best Director.

Hong Chau in The Whale (A24)

Edwin: Aronofsky has a long history of steering actors to great performances and will eventually get his due. Everyone in Supporting Actress indeed earns their nods and may very well result in the first Oscar for a turn in an MCU film. Angela Bassett is quite good in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, but I'm a bit surprised that she's turned into the frontrunner. I'd prefer to see Quan's onscreen daughter, Stephanie Hsu, win that category.

The two most pleasant surprises for me are Ana de Armas' superb work as Marilyn Monroe in the unfairly maligned Blonde, and Darius Khondji's mesmerizing cinematography in Bardo, another bafflingly (yet also predictably) polarizing film. Both movies made my Top 10 of 2022 and their recognition helps make up for others on that list — After Yang, Decision to Leave, White Noise, Armageddon Time, and Apollo 10 1/2 — getting zero nominations. What other finalists made you smile?

James: The Lead Actress category is stacked. Andrea Riseborough is the dark horse there (I'm not sure how many people saw To Leslie), but her presence is well-deserved. I absolutely loved de Armas in Blonde, but she's got some tough competition with Cate Blanchett, Michelle Williams, and Michelle Yeoh also on the ticket.

A few of my biggest happy surprises are Agentina, 1985 and The Quiet Girl for International Feature — two very different movies that each pack a punch in their own way. I'm not sure how popular that category is with U.S. audiences, but it's always one of my favorites. After Parasite's big wins a few years ago, I hoped domestic audiences would start to take more notice of international films, but I'm not sure that's the case.

Is there anything from international waters you're particularly excited about?

Edwin: I'm more pissed that Bardo and Decision to Leave didn't make the cut and that India submitted Last Film Show over RRR. The only one of the bunch I've seen is Close, which meanders a bit too much in its opening half hour but hits its stride once the plot kicks in. But I'll prioritize the two you mentioned and will finally get to EO.

I've also got some catching up to do in Best Documentary, having only seen the beautiful but flawed (looking at you, Miranda July narration) Fire of Love and the severely overrated All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. And then there's the inevitable left-field Animation finalist that I've yet to see — Netflix's The Sea Beast, though the 27th (check my math) Puss and Boots movie is likewise a blind spot.

Which other films will you be catching up with before the March 12 awards ceremony?

James: I haven't seen any of the documentaries yet. In fact, if I'm remembering correctly, the only doc I've seen all year is Until the Wheels Fall Off — a film I knew could never be an Oscar contender but had my fingers crossed for anyway.

I'm also behind on the animated features, which may come as a surprise considering I live with an 8-year-old. We've seen Turning Red and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, but my daughter has been pressing me hard about the rest. I'll guess I'll have to relent and finally sit down and watch them with her.

I've only got a few other blind spots to cover (Bardo, Babylon, and Living among the most pressing), so I think I'm in a pretty good position to get those knocked out before the big day.

All in all, I'd say this is a pretty exciting year. There's some conventional mainstream nods, but more oddball and esoteric ones than previous years. It should be a fun show if they can manage the runtime. I'd like to get some sleep that night.

Edwin: That's always a challenge. Unlike last year, the major categories don't all seem locked up at this point, so there's hopefully room for surprises throughout the broadcast — and not of the physical altercation variety.

And yes, despite plenty of my favorites not in the running (what else is new?), the nominees generally feel representative of 2022's offerings. That's a good thing — especially for the first "normal" year of moviegoing in what seems like far too long. Here's hoping the winners reflect that spirit as well.

(Photo: A24)